Supply Exceeds Demand, Magnesium Prices Remain in the Doldrums with No Breakthrough in Sight [SMM Magnesium Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM November 3 Magnesium Morning Meeting Minutes:

Magnesium Raw Material

Prices

The ex-factory price, excluding tax, for 1-3 cm dolomite (Wutai) was 108 yuan/mt, flat from the previous working day; the ex-factory price, excluding tax, for 2-4 cm dolomite (Wutai) was 128 yuan/mt, flat from the previous working day; the mainstream ex-factory price for 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,700-5,800 yuan/mt.

Supply and Demand

Recently, Wutai dolomite prices held steady. Magnesium plants in the main production area maintained stable production, continuously releasing rigid demand for dolomite, providing strong support. Dolomite prices are expected to hold up well. The most-traded ferrosilicon futures contract, ferrosilicon 2509, closed at 5,490 on the previous working day, down 46 yuan or 0.83%. The ferrosilicon market currently shows most prices bottoming out and stabilizing, but the supply-demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated, making it difficult to form effective upward momentum. Supported by costs, ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound.

Magnesium Ingot

Today, the mainstream quotation for magnesium ingots in the Fugu area was 16,000-16,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous working day; the Chinese FOB price was $2,260-2,370/mt.

Supply and Demand

Yesterday, the trading center for the magnesium market was dispersed between 16,000-16,100 yuan/mt. In the morning, some magnesium plants concluded deals at 16,100 yuan/mt, but overall trading volume was limited. Subsequently, influenced by some traders inquiring at 16,000 yuan/mt, some magnesium plants reluctantly lowered prices to promote deals. Market sentiment-wise, the mentality of "rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn" currently dominates some customers' decisions, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Analyzing both supply and demand sides, short-term magnesium prices face multiple pressures including oversupply, continuously accumulating inventory, and delayed downstream demand. The overall market is expected to be under pressure.

Magnesium Alloy

Today, the mainstream tax-included ex-factory price for magnesium alloy in China was 18,050-18,150 yuan/mt; the Chinese FOB price for magnesium alloy was $2,500-2,590/mt.

Supply and Demand

Recently, magnesium alloy prices moved under pressure in line with raw material magnesium ingot prices, while processing fees held firm. From a supply-demand perspective, the magnesium alloy market showed a structural imbalance in the short term. The operating rate on the production side remained high, and the previously tight supply situation had eased moderately. However, most enterprises still followed order-based production schedules. With upstream magnesium alloy manufacturers accelerating production, the supply shortage is expected to be effectively alleviated. On the demand side, new demand from the two-wheeled electric vehicle sector was gradually released, providing strong support for magnesium alloy demand. Overall, current magnesium alloy prices continue to fluctuate in sync with raw material magnesium ingot prices.

Magnesium Powder

Prices

Today, the mainstream ex-factory prices, including tax, for 20-80 mesh magnesium powder in China were 17,300-17,500 yuan/mt; the FOB price in China was $2,430-2,500/mt.

Supply and Demand

The magnesium powder market recently continued its mediocre trend, showing a weak supply-demand pattern. Purchases in the market were basically routine monthly orders with small quantities. The price of magnesium powder is expected to continue declining due to the downward trend in raw material prices.